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The Earth’s tropical zone is expanding and with it the subtropical dry zone is extending into what have been humid temperate climate zones, says a study by James Cook University.
Conducted by Dr Joanne Isaac, Post-Doctoral Fellow at JCU’s Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, with Professor Steve Turton, from JCU’s School of Earth and Environment Sciences, the review looked at scientific findings from long-term satellite measurements, weather balloon data, climate models and sea surface temperature studies.
Professor Turton said the review, Expansion of the Tropics: Evidence and Implications, encompassed about 70 peer-reviewed scientific papers and reports from scientists and institutions right around the world.
The review found that of particular concern were regions which border the subtropics and currently experience a temperate Mediterranean climate.
Such areas include heavily populated regions of southern Australia, southern Africa, the southern Europe-Mediterranean-Middle East region, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, and southern South America, all of which are predicted to experience severe drying.
If the dry subtropics expand into these regions, the consequences could be devastating for water resources, natural ecosystems and agriculture, with potentially cascading environmental, social and health implications.
The survey reveals that while these areas could experience an increased frequency of droughts, the expansion of the tropical zone could result in extreme rainfall events and floods to regions which have not previously been exposed to such conditions.
A further implication of the expansion of the tropical zone is the possible expansion of tropical-associated diseases and pests.
The review looked at scientific findings in relation to dengue among other tropical diseases and reports that some models predict the greatest increase in the annual epidemic potential of dengue will be into the subtropical regions, including the southern US, China and northern Africa in the northern hemisphere, and south America, southern Africa, and most of Australia in the southern hemisphere.
Evidence accumulating
In general, atmospheric scientists estimate the climatic boundaries of the tropics extend further from the equator to around 30 degrees latitude north and south,” the review reports.
In recent years a variety of independent studies, employing different methodologies have found evidence for the widening of the topical region, as defined by climate scientists.
However, while evidence is accumulating for the widening of the tropical belt and shifts in other climatic events, there is still much uncertainty regarding the degree of the expansion and the mechanisms which are driving it.
For example, across the studies reviewed the estimates of the increase in the tropics vary from 2.0 to more than 5 degrees of latitude approximately every 25 years. That makes the minimum agreed expansion of the Topics zone equivalent to
around 300 kilometres.
Conducted by Dr Joanne Isaac, Post-Doctoral Fellow at JCU’s Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, with Professor Steve Turton, from JCU’s School of Earth and Environment Sciences, the review looked at scientific findings from long-term satellite measurements, weather balloon data, climate models and sea surface temperature studies.
Professor Turton said the review, Expansion of the Tropics: Evidence and Implications, encompassed about 70 peer-reviewed scientific papers and reports from scientists and institutions right around the world.
The review found that of particular concern were regions which border the subtropics and currently experience a temperate Mediterranean climate.
Such areas include heavily populated regions of southern Australia, southern Africa, the southern Europe-Mediterranean-Middle East region, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, and southern South America, all of which are predicted to experience severe drying.
If the dry subtropics expand into these regions, the consequences could be devastating for water resources, natural ecosystems and agriculture, with potentially cascading environmental, social and health implications.
The survey reveals that while these areas could experience an increased frequency of droughts, the expansion of the tropical zone could result in extreme rainfall events and floods to regions which have not previously been exposed to such conditions.
A further implication of the expansion of the tropical zone is the possible expansion of tropical-associated diseases and pests.
The review looked at scientific findings in relation to dengue among other tropical diseases and reports that some models predict the greatest increase in the annual epidemic potential of dengue will be into the subtropical regions, including the southern US, China and northern Africa in the northern hemisphere, and south America, southern Africa, and most of Australia in the southern hemisphere.
Evidence accumulating
In general, atmospheric scientists estimate the climatic boundaries of the tropics extend further from the equator to around 30 degrees latitude north and south,” the review reports.
In recent years a variety of independent studies, employing different methodologies have found evidence for the widening of the topical region, as defined by climate scientists.
However, while evidence is accumulating for the widening of the tropical belt and shifts in other climatic events, there is still much uncertainty regarding the degree of the expansion and the mechanisms which are driving it.
For example, across the studies reviewed the estimates of the increase in the tropics vary from 2.0 to more than 5 degrees of latitude approximately every 25 years. That makes the minimum agreed expansion of the Topics zone equivalent to
around 300 kilometres.
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